quantifying resilience in ecology and evolution under global environmental change

GoogleScholar profile

((co)-supervised postdoc, phd, master student)


Grziwotz F, Chang CW, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Schwarzländer M, Kamps O, Hessler M, Tokuda IT, Telschow, A, Hsieh C (2023) Anticipating the occurrence and type of critical transitions. Science Advances, 9, eabq4558.


Berdugo M, J J Gaitán, M Delgado-Baquerizo, T W Crowther, V Dakos (2022) Prevalence and Drivers of Abrupt Vegetation Shifts in Global Drylands. PNAS, 119 (43): 1–10.

Gilarranz, L J, A Narwani, D Odermatt, R Siber, V Dakos (2022) Regime Shifts, Trends, and Variability of Lake Productivity at a Global Scale. PNAS, 119 (35): e2116413119.

Parra, SA, E Thébault, C Fontaine, V Dakos (2022) Interaction Fidelity Is Less Common than Expected in Plant – ­ Pollinator Communities. Journal Animal Ecology, no. May: 1–13.

Veldhuis, M P., R Martinez-Garcia, V Deblauwe, V Dakos (2022) Remotely-Sensed Slowing down in Spatially Patterned Dryland Ecosystems. Ecography, e06139.

Forzieri, G, V Dakos, N G. McDowell, A Ramdane, A Cescatti (2022). Emerging Signals of Declining Forest Resilience under Climate Change. Nature, 608 (7923): 534–39.

M. Lenton, J. E. Buxton, D. A. I. McKay, J. F. Abrams, C. A. Boulton, K. Lees, T. W. R. Powell, N. Boers, A. M. Cunliffe and V Dakos (2022) A resilience sensing system for the biosphere. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 377: 20210383.

Gladstone-Gallagher RV, Tylianakis JM, Yletyinen J, Dakos V, Douglas EJ, Greenhalgh S, Hewitt JE, Hikuroa D, Lade SJ, Heron RL, Norkko A, Perry GLW, Pilditch CA, Schiel D, Siwicka E, Warburton H, Thrush, Simon F (2022). Social-Ecological Connections across Land, Water, and Sea Demand a Reprioritization of Environmental Management. Elementa, Science of the Anthropocene, 10 (1): 0075. 

Dakos V, and Kefi S (2022). Ecological Resilience: What to Measure and How. Environmental Research Letters, 17: 043003.



Rigal S, Devictor V, Gaüzère P, Kéfi S, Forsman JT, Kajanus MH, Mönkkönen M, Dakos V (2021). Biotic homogenisation in bird communities leads to large-scale changes in species associations. Oikos, 00:1–14. doi:10.1111/oik.08756

Chaparro Pedraza PC, Matthews B, de Meester L,  Dakos V (2021). Adaptive Evolution Can Both Prevent Ecosystem Collapse and Delay Ecosystem Recovery. The American Naturalist, 198:E185–E197. doi:10.1086/716929

Laitinen V, Dakos V, Lahti L (2021). Probabilistic early warning signals. Ecology and Evolution, 1–14. doi:10.1002/ece3.8123

Gozzi C, Dakos V, Buccianti A, Vaselli O (2021). Are geochemical regime shifts identifiable in river waters? Exploring the compositional dynamics of the Tiber River (Italy). Science of the Total Environment, 785: 147268. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147268

Mesman JP, Stelzer JAA, Dakos V, Goyette S, Jones ID, Kasparian J, Ibelings B (2021). The role of internal feedbacks in shifting deep lake mixing regimes under a warming climate. Freshwater Biology, 1–15. doi:10.1111/fwb.13704

Lürig MD, Best RJ, Dakos V, Matthews B (2021). Submerged macrophytes affect the temporal variability of aquatic ecosystems. Freshwater Biology, 421–435. doi:10.1111/fwb.13648



Simmons BI, Wauchope HS, Amano T, Dicks L V, Sutherland WJ, Dakos V (2020). Estimating the risk of species interaction loss in mutualistic communities. PLoS Biology, 18: 1–20. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3000843

Abbott KC, Dakos V (2020) Mapping the distinct origins of bimodality in a classic model with alternative stable states. Theoretical Ecology, doi:10.1007/s12080-020-00476-5

Drake JM, O’Regan SM, Dakos V, Kéfi S, Rohani P (2020). Chapter 15: Alternative stable states, tipping points, and early warning signals of ecological transitions In: Theoretical ecology: Concepts and applications. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780198824299

Rigal S, Devictor V, Dakos V (2020). A method for classifying and comparing non-linear trajectories of ecological variables. Ecological Indicators, 112: 106113. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106113

Lever JJ, van de Leemput IA, Weinans E, Quax R, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Bascompte J, Scheffer M (2020). Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse. Ecology Letters, 23: 2–15. doi:10.1111/ele.13401

Dakos V (2020). Nature’s dynamical complexity. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 4: 12–13. doi:10.1038/s41559-019-1077-x



Dominguez-Garcia V, Dakos V, Kefi S (2019). Unveiling dimensions of stability in complex ecological networks. PNAS, 116: 25714–25720. doi:10.1073/pnas.1904470116

Latty T, Dakos V (2019). The risk of threshold responses, tipping points, and cascading failures in pollination systems. Biodiversity and Conservation, 28: 3389–3406. doi:10.1007/s10531-019-01844-2

Kéfi S, Domínguez‐García V, Donohue I, Fontaine C, Thébault E, Dakos V (2019). Advancing our understanding of ecological stability. Ecology Letters, 22: 1349-1356. doi:10.1111/ele.13340

Carnicer J, Domingo-Marimon C, Ninyerola M, Camarero JJ, Bastos A, López-Parages J, Blanquer L,Rodríguez-Fonseca B, Lenton T M, Dakos V, Ribas M, Gutiérrez E, Peñuelas J, Pons X (2019). Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures. Global Change Biology, 25, 2825–2840. doi:10.1111/gcb.14664
Dakos V, Matthews B, Hendry AP, Levine J, Loeuille N, Norberg J, Nosil P, Scheffer M, De Meester L (2019). Ecosystem tipping points in an evolving world. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 3(3), 355–362. doi:10.1038/s41559-019-0797-2
Cailleret M, Dakos V et al (2019). Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth. Frontiers Plant Science, 9, 1–14.

Dakos V (2018) Ecological Transitions: Regime Shifts, Thresholds and Tipping Points. Oxford Bibliographies in Environmental Science. Ed. EIC Ellen Wohl. New York: Oxford University Press.  doi:10.1093/obo/9780199363445-0108



Dakos V (2018) Identifying best-indicator species for abrupt transitions in multispecies communities. Ecological Indicators, 94, 494–502.

Bathiany S, Dakos V, Scheffer M, Lenton T M (2018). Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries. Science Advances, 4, eaar5809. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aar5809

van de Leemput IA, Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH (2018). Slow Recovery from Local Disturbances as an Indicator for Loss of Ecosystem Resilience. Ecosystems, 21(1), 1–12.



Dakos V, Soler-Toscano F (2017). Measuring complexity to infer changes in the dynamics of ecological systems under stress. Ecological Complexity, 32, 144–155. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2016.08.005

Lenton TM, Dakos V, Bathiany S, Scheffer M (2017) Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability. Scientific Reports, 1–10. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x

van Belzen J, van de Koppel J, Kirwan ML, van der Wal D, Herman PMJ, Dakos V, Kefi S, Scheffer M, Guntenspergen GR, Bouma TJ (2017) Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation. Nature Communications, 8, 15811. doi:10.1038/ncomms15811

van Belzen J, van de Koppel J, van der Wal D, Herman PMJ, Dakos V, Kéfi S, Scheffer M, Bouma TJ (2017) Timing recovery of ecosystems in sequential remotely sensed and simulated data. Protocol Exchange doi:10.1038/protex.2017.038

Belle S, Baudrot V, Lami A, Musazzi S, Dakos, V (2017) Rising variance and abrupt shifts of subfossil chironomids due to eutrophication in a deep sub-alpine lake. Aquatic Ecology, 51, 1–13. doi:10.1007/s10452-017-9618-3

Dakos V, Glaser SM, Hsieh C-H, Sugihara G (2017) Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress. Journal Royal Society Interface, 14,



Bathiany, S, Dijkstra H, Crucifix M, Dakos V, Brovkin V, Mark S, Lenton TM, Scheffer M (2016) Beyond bifurcation – using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change. Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, 1–31. doi:10.1093/climsys/dzw004

Gsell, AS, Scharfenberger U, Özkundakci D, Walters A, Hansson LA, Janssen ABG,, Nõges P, Reid PC, Schindler DE, Van Donk E, Dakos V, Adrian R (2016) Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems. PNAS, 113, (50), E8089-E8095. doi:10.1073/pnas.1608242113

Cavaliere M, Yang G, Danos V, Dakos V (2016) Detecting the Collapse of Cooperation in Evolving Networks. Scientific Reports, 6, 30845. doi:10.1038/srep30845

Bathiany S, Claussen M, Brovkin V, Scheffer M, Dakos V, van Nes E (2016) Simple tipping or complex transition? Lessons from a green Sahara. Past Global Changes Magazine, 24 (1): 20-21. (online)

Olde Rikkert MG, Dakos V, Buchman TG, de Boer R, Glass L, Cramer AO, Levin S, van Nes E, Sugihara G, Ferrari MD, Tolner EA, van de Leemput I, Lagro J, Melis R, Scheffer M. (2016) Slowing Down of Recovery as Generic Risk Marker for Acute Severity Transitions in Chronic Diseases. Critical Care Medicine, 44 (3), 601-6. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000001564



Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Dakos V, van Nes EH (2015) Generic Indicators of Ecological Resilience: Inferring the Chance of a Critical Transition. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 46, 145-167. doi: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054242

Richter A, Dakos V (2015) Profit fluctuations signal eroding resilience of natural resources. Ecological Economics, 117, 12–21.

Faassen EJ, Veraart AJ, van Nes EH, Dakos V, Lürling M, Scheffer M (2015) Hysteresis in an experimental phytoplankton population. Oikos, 124, 1617–1623. doi: 10.1111/oik.02006

Dakos V, Quinlan A, Baggio JA, Bennett E, Bodin Ö, BurnSilver S (2015) Principle 2: Manage connectivity In: Principles for Building Resilience – Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems, Cambridge University Press, ISBN: 9781107082656

Seekell DA, Dakos V (2015) Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data. Ecology and Evolution, 5(11), 2185-2192. doi: 10.1002/ece3.1510

Wouters N, Dakos V, Edwards M, Serafim MP, Valayer PJ, Cabral HN (2015) Evidencing a regime shift in the North Sea using early-warning signals as indicators of critical transitions. Estuarine Coastal Shelf Science, 152, 65–72. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2014.10.017

Dakos V, Carpenter SR, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2015) Resilience indicators : prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 370, 20130263. doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0263

Conversi A, Dakos V, Gardmark A, Ling S, Folke C, Mumby PJ, Greene C, Edwards M, Blenckner T, Casini M, Pershing A, Mollman C (2015) A holistic view of marine regime shifts. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 370. doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0279



Dakos V & Bascompte J (2014). Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset of collapse in mutualistic communities. PNAS, 11, 17546–551. doi:10.1073/pnas.1406326111

Tirabassi G, Viebahn J, Dakos V, Dijkstra HA, Masoller C, Rietkerk M, Dekker SC (2014) Interaction network based early-warning indicators of vegetation transitions. Ecological Complexity, 19, 148-157. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.06.004

Kéfi S, Guttal V, Brock WA, Carpenter SR, Ellison AM, Livina VN, Seekell DA, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Dakos V (2014) Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns. PLoS ONE, 9(3): e92097. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0092097



Saavedra S, Rohr RP, Dakos V, Bascompte J (2013) Estimating the tolerance of species to the effects of global environmental change. Nature Communications, 4, 2350. doi:10.1038/ncomms3350

Wang R, Dearing JA, Langdon P, Zhang E, Yang X, Dakos V, Scheffer M (2013) Wang et al reply – Brief communication arising, Nature, 498, E12-E13. doi:10.1038/nature12273

Dakos V, Hastings A (2013) Editorial: special issue on regime shifts and tipping points in ecology. Theoretical Ecology, 6, 253-254. doi: 10.1007/s12080-013-0197-1

Dakos V, Nes EH, Scheffer M (2013) Flickering as an early warning signal. Theoretical Ecology, 6, 309–317. doi: 10.1007/s12080-013-0186-4

Kéfi S, Dakos V, Scheffer M, Van Nes EH, Rietkerk M (2013) Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions. Oikos, 122: 641–648. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2012.20838.x

de Boer EJ, Hooghiemstra H, Florens FBV, Baider C, Engels S, Dakos V, Blaauw M, Bennett  KD (2013) Rapid succession of plant associations on the small ocean island of Mauritius at the onset of the Holocene. Quaternary Science Reviews, 68(15), 114–125.    doi:0.1016/j.quascirev.2013.02.005

Hughes TP, Linares C, Dakos V, van de Leemput IA, van Nes EH (2013) Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 28(3), 149–155. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.08.022



Wang R, Dearing JA, Langdon P, Zhang E, Yang X, Dakos V, Scheffer M (2012) Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state. Nature, 492, 419-422. doi:10.1038/nature11655

Scheffer M, Carpenter S R, Lenton T M, Bascompte J, Brock W, Dakos V, van de Koppel J, van de Leemput IA, Levin SA, van Nes EH, Pascual M, Vandermeer J (2012) Anticipating Critical Transitions. Science, 338, 344–348. doi:10.1126/science.1225244

Biggs R, Schlüter M, Biggs D, Bohensky EL, BurnSilver S, Cundill G, Dakos V, Daw TM, Evans LS, Kotschy K, Leitch AM, Meek C, Quinlan A, Raudsepp-Hearne C, Robards MD, Schoon ML, Schultz L, West PC (2012) Toward Principles for Enhancing the Resilience of Ecosystem Services. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 37, 421–448. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-051211-123836

Lenton TM, Livina, VN, Dakos V, Scheffer M (2012) Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation? Climate of the Past, 8, 1127-1139. doi:10.5194/cp-8-1127-2012

Feng J, Dakos V, van Nes EH (2012) Does predator interference cause alternative stable states in multispecies communities? Theoretical Population Biology, 82(3):170-176. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2012.06.003

Ives AR, Dakos V (2012) Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models. Ecosphere, 3:art58.

Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Ellison AM, Guttal V, Ives AR, Kéfi S, Livina V, Seekell DA, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2012) Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data. PLoS ONE, 7(7): e41010. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0041010

Lindegren M, Dakos V, Gröger JP, Gårdmark A, Kornilovs G, Otto SA,  Möllmann C (2012) Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application. PLoS ONE, 7(7): e38410, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0038410

Dakos V, van Nes EH, D’Odorico P, Scheffer M (2012) Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down, Ecology, 93(2), 264-271. pdf

Lenton TM, Livina VN, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2012) Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 370: 1185-1204. pdf

Veraart A.J, Faassen EJ, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Lurling M, Scheffer M (2012) Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system. Nature, 481: 357-359. pdf



Benincà E, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Huisman J, Scheffer M (2011) Resonance of plankton communities with temperature fluctuations. American Naturalist, 178: E85-E95.

Biggs D, Biggs R, Dakos V, Scholes RJ, Schoon M (2011) Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises? Ecology and Society, 16(2): 27. [online] URL:

Dakos V, Kéfi S, Rietkerk M, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2011) Slowing down in spatially patterned systems at the brink of collapse. American Naturalist, 177(6): E153-E166.pdf

van de Leemput I, Veraart AJ, Dakos V, de Klein JJM, Strous M, Scheffer M (2011) Predicting microbial nitrogen pathways from basic principles. Environmental Microbiology, 13: 1477–1487. doi: 10.1111/j.1462-2920.2011.02450.x



Dakos V, van Nes EH, Donangelo R, Fort H, Scheffer M (2010) Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts. Theoretical Ecology, 3: 163-174.pdf

Donangelo R, Fort H, Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH (2010) Early warnings of catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: Comparison between spatial and temporal indicators. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 20, (2): 315–321.pdf



Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR, Dakos V, Held H, van Nes EH, Rietkerk M, Sugihara G (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature, 461: 53-59.pdf

Dakos V, Benincà E, van Nes EH, Philippart CJM, Scheffer M, Huisman J (2009) Interannual variability in species composition explained as seasonally entrained chaos. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 2871-2880.pdf



Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. PNAS, 105(38), 14308-14312. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0802430105

Chatzinikolaou Y, Dakos V, Lazaridou-Dimitriadou M (2008) Assessing the ecological integrity of a transboundary large Mediterranean river. International Review Hydrology, 93(1), 73-87. dpi: 10.1002/iroh.200610937.pdf



Chatzinikolaou Y, Dakos V, Lazaridou-Dimitriadou M (2006) Longitudinal impacts of anthropogenic pressures on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in a large transboundary Mediterranean river during the low flow period. Acta hydrochimica hydrobiologica, 34, 453–463.pdf

Lekka E, Kagalou I, Lazaridou-Dimitriadou M, Albanis T, Dakos V, Lambropoulou D, Sakkas V (2004) The Assessment of the Water and Habitat Quality of a Mediterranean River (Kalamas, Epirus, Hellas), in Accordance with the EU Water Framework Directive. Acta hydrochimica hydrobiologica,32 (3): 175-188.pdf



Dakos V (2018) Canaries In A Coal Mine: Best-Indicator Species For Detecting Abrupt Community Shifts ( (invited contribution)

Simonsen SH, Biggs R, Schlüter M, Schoon M, Bohensky E, Cundill G, Dakos V, Daw T, Kotschy K, Leitch A, Quinlan A, Peterson G, Moberg F (2014) Applying resilience thinking – Seven principles for building resilience in social-ecological systems. Stockholm Resilience Center brochure, p20.

Dakos V, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2009) Leading indicators of critical transitions: theory or practice? Dynamical System’s Webmagazine (invited contribution)

Dakos V (2011) Expecting the Unexpected: Indicators of Resilience as Early-Warning Signals for Critical Transitions. PhD Thesis, ISBN 978-90-8585-870-6.pdf