Publications

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    1. Dakos V, Soler-Toscano F (2017). Measuring complexity to infer changes in the dynamics of ecological systems under stress. Ecological Complexity 32, 144–155. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2016.08.005

    2. Lenton TM, Dakos V, Bathiany S, Scheffer M (2017) Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability. Scientific Reports. 1–10. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x

    3. van Belzen J, van de Koppel J, Kirwan ML, van der Wal D, Herman PMJ, Dakos V, Kefi S, Scheffer M, Guntenspergen GR, Bouma TJ (2017) Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation. Nature Communications 8, 15811. doi:10.1038/ncomms15811

    4. van Belzen J, van de Koppel J, van der Wal D, Herman PMJ, Dakos V, Kéfi S, Scheffer M, Bouma TJ (2017) Timing recovery of ecosystems in sequential remotely sensed and simulated data. Protocol Exchange doi:10.1038/protex.2017.038

    5. Belle S, Baudrot V, Lami A, Musazzi S, Dakos, V (2017) Rising variance and abrupt shifts of subfossil chironomids due to eutrophication in a deep sub-alpine lake. Aquatic Ecology 51, 1–13. doi:10.1007/s10452-017-9618-3

    6. Dakos V, Glaser SM, Hsieh C-H, Sugihara G (2017) Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress. Journal Royal Society Interface 14, 20160845.dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0845

    7. Bathiany, S, Dijkstra H, Crucifix M, Dakos V, Brovkin V, Mark S, Lenton TM, Scheffer M (2016) Beyond bifurcation – using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change. Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, 1–31. doi:10.1093/climsys/dzw004

    8. Gsell, AS, Scharfenberger U, Özkundakci D, Walters A, Hansson LA, Janssen ABG,, Nõges P, Reid PC, Schindler DE, Van Donk E, Dakos V, Adrian R (2016) Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 113, (50), E8089-E8095. doi:10.1073/pnas.1608242113

    9. Cavaliere M, Yang G, Danos V, Dakos V (2016) Detecting the Collapse of Cooperation in Evolving Networks. Scientific Reports, 6, 30845. doi:10.1038/srep30845

    10. Bathiany S, Claussen M, Brovkin V, Scheffer M, Dakos V, van Nes E (2016) Simple tipping or complex transition? Lessons from a green Sahara. Past Global Changes Magazine, 24 (1): 20-21. (online)

    11. Olde Rikkert MG, Dakos V, Buchman TG, de Boer R, Glass L, Cramer AO, Levin S, van Nes E, Sugihara G, Ferrari MD, Tolner EA, van de Leemput I, Lagro J, Melis R, Scheffer M. (2016) Slowing Down of Recovery as Generic Risk Marker for Acute Severity Transitions in Chronic Diseases. Critical Care Medicine, 44 (3), 601-6. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000001564

    12. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR, Dakos V, van Nes EH (2015) Generic Indicators of Ecological Resilience: Inferring the Chance of a Critical Transition. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 46, 145-167. doi: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-112414-054242

    13. Richter A, Dakos V (2015) Profit fluctuations signal eroding resilience of natural resources. Ecological Economics, 117, 12–21. doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.05.013

    14. Faassen EJ, Veraart AJ, van Nes EH, Dakos V, Lürling M, Scheffer M (2015) Hysteresis in an experimental phytoplankton population. Oikos, 124, 1617–1623. doi: 10.1111/oik.02006

    15. Seekell DA, Dakos V (2015) Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data. Ecology and Evolution, 5(11), 2185-2192. doi: 10.1002/ece3.1510

    16. Wouters N, Dakos V, Edwards M, Serafim MP, Valayer PJ, Cabral HN (2015) Evidencing a regime shift in the North Sea using early-warning signals as indicators of critical transitions. Estuarine Coastal Shelf Science, 152, 65–72. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2014.10.017

    17. Dakos V, Carpenter SR, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2015) Resilience indicators : prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 370, 20130263. doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0263 pdf

    18. Conversi A, Dakos V, Gardmark A, Ling S, Folke C, Mumby PJ, Greene C, Edwards M, Blenckner T, Casini M, Pershing A, Mollman C (2015) A holistic view of marine regime shifts. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 370. doi:10.1098/rstb.2013.0279

    19. Dakos V & Bascompte J (2014). Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset of collapse in mutualistic communities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 11, 17546–551. doi:10.1073/pnas.1406326111

    20. Tirabassi G, Viebahn J, Dakos V, Dijkstra HA, Masoller C, Rietkerk M, Dekker SC (2014) Interaction network based early-warning indicators of vegetation transitions. Ecological Complexity, 19, 148-157. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.06.004

    21. Kéfi S, Guttal V, Brock WA, Carpenter SR, Ellison AM, Livina VN, Seekell DA, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Dakos V (2014) Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns. PLoS ONE 9(3): e92097. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0092097

    22. Saavedra S, Rohr RP, Dakos V, Bascompte J (2013) Estimating the tolerance of species to the effects of global environmental change. Nature Communications, 4, 2350. doi:10.1038/ncomms3350

    23. Wang R, Dearing JA, Langdon P, Zhang E, Yang X, Dakos V, Scheffer M (2013) Wang et al reply – Brief communication arising, Nature, 498, E12-E13. doi:10.1038/nature12273

    24. Dakos V, Hastings A (2013) Editorial: special issue on regime shifts and tipping points in ecology. Theoretical Ecology, 6, 253-254. doi: 10.1007/s12080-013-0197-1

    25. Dakos V, Nes EH, Scheffer M (2013) Flickering as an early warning signal. Theoretical Ecology, 6, 309–317. doi: 10.1007/s12080-013-0186-4

    26. Kéfi S, Dakos V, Scheffer M, Van Nes EH, Rietkerk M (2013) Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions. Oikos, 122: 641–648. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2012.20838.x

    27. de Boer EJ, Hooghiemstra H, Florens FBV, Baider C, Engels S, Dakos V, Blaauw M, Bennett  KD (2013) Rapid succession of plant associations on the small ocean island of Mauritius at the onset of the Holocene. Quaternary Science Reviews, 68(15), 114–125.    doi:0.1016/j.quascirev.2013.02.005

    28. Hughes TP, Linares C, Dakos V, van de Leemput IA, van Nes EH (2013) Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 28(3), 149–155. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2012.08.022

    29. Wang R, Dearing JA, Langdon P, Zhang E, Yang X, Dakos V, Scheffer M (2012) Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state. Nature, 492, 419-422. doi:10.1038/nature11655

    30. Scheffer M, Carpenter S R, Lenton T M, Bascompte J, Brock W, Dakos V, van de Koppel J, van de Leemput IA, Levin SA, van Nes EH, Pascual M, Vandermeer J (2012) Anticipating Critical Transitions. Science, 338, 344–348. doi:10.1126/science.1225244

    31. Biggs R, Schlüter M, Biggs D, Bohensky EL, BurnSilver S, Cundill G, Dakos V, Daw TM, Evans LS, Kotschy K, Leitch AM, Meek C, Quinlan A, Raudsepp-Hearne C, Robards MD, Schoon ML, Schultz L, West PC (2012) Toward Principles for Enhancing the Resilience of Ecosystem Services. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 37, 421–448. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-051211-123836

    32. Lenton TM, Livina, VN, Dakos V, Scheffer M (2012) Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation? Climate of the Past, 8, 1127-1139. doi:10.5194/cp-8-1127-2012

    33. Feng J, Dakos V, van Nes EH (2012) Does predator interference cause alternative stable states in multispecies communities? Theoretical Population Biology, 82(3):170-176. doi: 10.1016/j.tpb.2012.06.003

    34. Ives AR, Dakos V (2012) Detecting dynamical changes in nonlinear time series using locally linear state-space models. Ecosphere 3:art58. doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00347.1

    35. Dakos V, Carpenter SR, Brock WA, Ellison AM, Guttal V, Ives AR, Kéfi S, Livina V, Seekell DA, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2012) Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data. PLoS ONE 7(7): e41010. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0041010

      • highlighted in the Nov/Dec2012 issue of SFI Update

    36. Lindegren M, Dakos V, Gröger JP, Gårdmark A, Kornilovs G, Otto SA,  Möllmann C (2012) Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application. PLoS ONE 7(7): e38410, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0038410

    37. Dakos V, van Nes EH, D’Odorico P, Scheffer M (2012) Robustness of variance and autocorrelation as indicators of critical slowing down, Ecology, 93(2), 264-271. pdf

    38. Lenton TM, Livina VN, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2012) Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 370: 1185-1204. pdf

    39. Veraart A.J, Faassen EJ, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Lurling M, Scheffer M (2012) Recovery rates reflect distance to a tipping point in a living system. Nature 481: 357-359. pdf

    40. Benincà E, Dakos V, van Nes EH, Huisman J, Scheffer M (2011) Resonance of plankton communities with temperature fluctuations. American Naturalist 178: E85-E95. pdf

    41. Biggs D, Biggs R, Dakos V, Scholes RJ, Schoon M (2011) Are we entering an era of concatenated global crises? Ecology and Society 16(2): 27. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art27

    42. Dakos V, Kéfi S, Rietkerk M, van Nes EH, Scheffer M (2011) Slowing down in spatially patterned systems at the brink of collapse. American Naturalist, 177(6): E153-E166.pdf

    43. van de Leemput I, Veraart AJ, Dakos V, de Klein JJM, Strous M, Scheffer M (2011) Predicting microbial nitrogen pathways from basic principles. Environmental Microbiology, 13: 1477–1487. doi: 10.1111/j.1462-2920.2011.02450.x

    44. Dakos V, van Nes EH, Donangelo R, Fort H, Scheffer M (2010) Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts. Theoretical Ecology, 3: 163-174.pdf

    45. Donangelo R, Fort H, Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH (2010) Early warnings of catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: Comparison between spatial and temporal indicators. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 20, (2): 315–321.pdf

    46. Scheffer M, Bascompte J, Brock WA, Brovkin V, Carpenter SR, Dakos V, Held H, van Nes EH, Rietkerk M, Sugihara G (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature, 461: 53-59.pdf

    47. Dakos V, Benincà E, van Nes EH, Philippart CJM, Scheffer M, Huisman J (2009) Interannual variability in species composition explained as seasonally entrained chaos. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276, 2871-2880.pdf

    48. Dakos V, Scheffer M, van Nes EH, Brovkin V, Petoukhov V, Held H (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 105(38), 14308-14312. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0802430105

    49. Chatzinikolaou Y, Dakos V, Lazaridou-Dimitriadou M (2008) Assessing the ecological integrity of a transboundary large Mediterranean river. International Review Hydrology, 93(1), 73-87. dpi: 10.1002/iroh.200610937.pdf

    50. Chatzinikolaou Y, Dakos V, Lazaridou-Dimitriadou M (2006) Longitudinal impacts of anthropogenic pressures on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in a large transboundary Mediterranean river during the low flow period. Acta hydrochimica hydrobiologica, 34, 453–463.pdf

    51. Lekka E, Kagalou I, Lazaridou-Dimitriadou M, Albanis T, Dakos V, Lambropoulou D, Sakkas V (2004) The Assessment of the Water and Habitat Quality of a Mediterranean River (Kalamas, Epirus, Hellas), in Accordance with the EU Water Framework Directive. Acta hydrochimica hydrobiologica,32 (3): 175-188.pdf

books / book-chapters

      • Dakos V, Quinlan A, Baggio JA, Bennett E, Bodin Ö, BurnSilver S (2015) Principle 2: manage connectivity in Principles for Building Resilience – Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological SystemsBiggs, R. M. Schlüter, M.L. Schoon (eds), Cambridge University Press, 316pp, ISBN: 9781107082656
      • Dakos V (2011) Expecting the Unexpected: Indicators of Resilience as Early-Warning Signals for Critical Transitions. PhD Thesis, ISBN 978-90-8585-870-6.pdf

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