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quantifying resilience in ecology and evolution under global environmental change

Review on anticipating critical transitions in last week´s issue in Science

Our review paper on Anticipating Critical Transitions summarizes the advancement and popularity in estimating early-warning signals for approaching transitions in a variety of disciplines together with some ground-breaking experimental demonstrations that followed the earlier review on early-warnings. In addition, new ideas are mapped out and the challenge of merging network perspectives on stability and collapse…
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October 21, 2012 0

7 principles for enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services

Our long lasting project with the RAYS cohort just got appeared in a review/synthesis paper where we try to summarize basic principles that so far have been widely proposed to be fundamental for supporting the resilience of ecosystem services. Important part of this work is that we try to identify gaps in the existing research on resilience…
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October 18, 2012 0

KNAW colloquium, masterclass and SparcS

Our colloquium and masterclass on ‘Early-warning signals for critical transitions: bridging the gap between theory and practice’ will be hosted by the Dutch Royal Science and Arts Society (KNAW) from 10 to 12 of October 2012 in Amsterdam. This is also going to be the official kick-off of SparcS – the Synergy Program for Analyzing Resilience and Critical transitionS: an initiative…
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September 30, 2012 0

PLoS One paper out!

The methodological paper that we worked on during the Santa Fe Institute workshop last October became available few weeks ago. It presents a suite of most developed methods for identifying early-warnings and provides clear step-by-step examples on how to apply them, in an attempt to offer a protocol to the uninitiated into the field. Most…
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September 19, 2012 0

Model-based leading indicators for critical transitions

In a recent work with Tony Ives, we showed how modified linear models with time-varying parameters can be used to extract an indicator of instability for a time series that may be drifting towards a regime shift. The paper is available online in Ecosphere. The idea is simply that instead of fitting an autoregressive model…
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August 19, 2012 0

Using Economic Information to Anticipate Collapses in Social-Ecological Systems

Andries is going to present our work in progress in the upcoming Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society in Minneapolis later this month. The talk is part of an interesting session on Climate and Fisheries: Responses of a Socio-Ecological System to Global Change.


August 3, 2012 0

Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application

The paper we were working on within the EUR-Oceans group for the Baltic Sea just appeared in PLoS One. We show for the first time how different methods for identifying regime shifts can be applied in the marine environment and how they can be interpreted. Hopefully this study will pave the way for same sort of…
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July 11, 2012 0

Does predator interference cause alternative stable states in multispecies communities?

Our paper with Jiangfeng Feng and Egbert van Nes in Theoretical Population Biology just appeared online http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2012.06.003 . We show that predator interference has a dual effect on the dynamics of multispecies predator prey communities: on one hand it increases their dynamical stability (in the sense of leading to stable equilibrium dynamics), while on the other hand it…
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July 8, 2012 0

Dutch graduate research school SENSE PhD award

My PhD thesis “Expecting the Unexpected: indicators of resilience as early-warning signals for critical transitions” received the SENSE PhD Award for 2012.


June 19, 2012 0

ASLO meeting Japan: Session on Ecosystem change and predictability

Together with Elisa Benincà from the University of Amsterdam and Chih-hao Hsieh from the National Taiwan University, we are putting together a special session on ECOSYSTEM CHANGE AND PREDICTABILITY OF AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS, in coming July during the ASLO Aquatic Sciences meeting in Japan. George Sugihara of Scripps Institution of Oceanography is going to kick start our session…
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June 10, 2012 0